Now Lot, who was moving about with Abram, also had flocks and herds and tents. But the land could not support them while they stayed together, for their possessions were so great that they were not able to stay together.
Genesis 13:5
The issue of limits to population goes back a long way. In 1758 The Rev. Otto Diederich Lutken, Rector of a parish on the Danish island of Fyn, summed up the whole issue in this single beautifully understated sentence:
‘Since the circumference of the globe is given and does not expand with the increased number of its inhabitants, and as travel to other planets thought to be inhabitable has not yet been invented; since the earth’s fertility cannot be extended beyond a given point, and since human nature will presumably remain unchanged, so that a given number will hereafter require the same quantity of the fruits of the earth for their support as now, and as their rations cannot be arbitrarily reduced, it follows that the proposition “that the world’s inhabitants will be happier, the greater their number” cannot be maintained, for as soon as the number exceeds that which our planet with all its wealth of land and water can support, they must needs starve one another out, not to mention other necessarily attendant inconveniences.’
The most famous person to point out the dangers of unchecked population growth was the Rev. Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834), an English cleric and scholar. He is best known for his work ‘An Essay on the Principle of Population’, which observed that sooner or later population would be checked by famine and disease. ‘The power of population is infinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man’.
The principles that he stated are, ‘That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence’, ‘That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase, and that the superior power of population is repressed, and the actual population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice.’
His ideas were influential in that it gave Darwin an essential insight that was an important clue to his development of the idea of Natural Selection. In ‘The Origin of Species’ Darwin states in a section headed ‘Geometrical Ratio of Increase’, ‘Hence, as more individuals are produced than can possibly survive, there must be in every case be a struggle for existence, either one individual with another of the same species, or with individuals of a distinct species, or with the physical conditions of life.
Recent history
Ever since the time of Malthus, human population growth has been the topic of debate. Pessimists argue that population growth has extensive harmful impacts while optimists claim that advances in technology can take care of society’s needs without irreversible damage to the environment.
Until the mid-twentieth century, much of the less developed world had high birth and high death rates. However starting in the late 1950 and 1960s population growth in Africa, Asia, and Latin America accelerated as the introduction of new medical technology and public health measures such as antibiotics, insecticides, immunization, clean water, and sanitation reduced death rates while birth rates remained high. The issue of the potential adverse effects of rapid population growth particularly in less developed countries (LDCs) became critical.
By the late-1960s, many governments in LDCs were convinced that high births rates hampered development. Several countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong successfully implemented voluntary family planning programs. Unfortunately, in the late 1970s a few countries, notably China with its coercive One-Child Policy and India with its forced sterilization program, resorted to more drastic measures. The international community condemned these actions as unacceptable.
In the 1980s and 1990s a major shift occurred which largely reversed the earlier alarmist view. Partly as a result of the so-called Green Revolution (see below) in agriculture, dire predictions of famine and shortages of natural resources made in the 1960s and 1970s failed to materialize. Policy makers became less concerned about rapid population growth.
By the turn of the 21st century a broader perspective that included not only the adverse effects of population growth but also other issues such as climate change, international migration, and rapid urbanization developed. This contributed to a revival of the international family planning movement after a period of relative neglect.
The issue remains highly contentious. Despite rapid fertility decline in most of the developed world and successful non-coercive family planning programs in many LDCs, huge growth still continues particularly in some countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The human population is now so large that even with comparatively smaller families, the total population continues to increase and is a significant contributor to the planetary crisis.
Norman Borlag and the Green Revolution.
Norman Borlaug (1914-2009) is known as the instigator of the Green Revolution which is credited with having saved a billion people from starvation. Winner of the Nobel prize in 1970, in his Nobel lecture he repeatedly drew attention to the need to limit population growth.
“The green revolution has won a temporary success in man’s war against hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green revolution will be ephemeral only.
“Most people still fail to comprehend the magnitude and menace of the 'Population Monster'. In the beginning there were but two, Adam and Eve. When they appeared on this earth is still questionable. By the time of Christ, world population had probably reached 250 million. But between then and now, population has grown to 3.5 billion. Growth has been especially fast since the advent of modern medicine. If it continues to increase at the estimated present rate of two percent a year, the world population will reach 6.5 billion by the year 2000. Currently, with each second, or tick of the clock, about 2.2 additional people are added to the world population. The rhythm of increase will accelerate to 2.7, 3.3, and 4.0 for each tick of the clock by 1980, 1990, and 2000, respectively, unless man becomes more realistic and preoccupied about this impending doom. The ticktock of the clock will continually grow louder and more menacing each decade. Where will it all end?"
“Malthus signalled the danger a century and a half ago…”
The lecture was given on 11 Dec. 1970. Note that he states the world population to be 3.5 billion: since that date population has more than doubled to over 8 billion.